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A Real-World Case
Foundations of Leadership · Chapter 7: Decision-Making ModuleSection 7.10 · lesson 47 of 9012 min · free with a free account
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In this lesson
One sourcing decision, read through every framework in the module - including the gap between them.
- Apply the seven steps to a multinational decision
- Read a decision tree under risk and uncertainty
- Name the descriptive model that actually fits
- Judge a real choice through four ethical lenses
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Everything said in the video, section by section (1,536 words). Read along, or search it.
Decision-Making Module
A Real-World Case
Across nine sections, this module has built a vocabulary, a toolkit, and a set of ethical frameworks. This final section brings them together in a single extended case. Global supply chains are useful for that purpose, because they contain everything. High stakes. Multiple jurisdictions. Genuine uncertainty. Competing ethical considerations. And the full range of decision types, programmed and non-programmed, under risk and under ambiguity. The case that follows is a composite. It is built from the experiences of several real firms in apparel and electronics manufacturing. As you follow it, watch for three things. The prescriptive frameworks in the structure of the analysis. The descriptive models in how the decision actually unfolds. And the ethical frameworks, in the considerations the quantitative methods cannot capture alone.
The Case
Meridian Apparel and the Sourcing Question
Meridian Apparel is a mid-sized fashion brand headquartered in Mumbai. Annual revenue of approximately two thousand eight hundred crore rupees. For the past decade, about seventy per cent of its garment production has been outsourced. To factories in Bangladesh and Vietnam. The remaining thirty per cent is produced in India. In early twenty twenty-five, three developments converged on the leadership at once. First, rising labour costs in Vietnam. Wage inflation had been running at eight per cent annually, for three years. That eroded the cost advantage which made the country attractive back in twenty fifteen. Second, a series of high-profile incidents across the apparel industry. Including a factory fire in Dhaka the previous year, which killed forty-seven workers. Scrutiny of supplier conditions rose sharply, from international buyers and Indian regulators alike. Third, the Indian government's Production-Linked Incentive scheme for textiles. It offered subsidies to firms that expanded domestic manufacturing. The CEO convened a sourcing-strategy committee to recommend a five-year course of action.
Framing
Two of Five Meetings Spent on the Question
The committee's first task was to define the problem precisely. An initial draft framed it as how to maintain cost competitiveness despite wage inflation. That sounds neutral, but discussion revealed it had already assumed cost was the dominant criterion. Several committee members argued the real question was broader. How to construct a supply chain that is cost-competitive, ethically defensible, and resilient. Resilient to regulatory and reputational shocks. Now notice carefully what the reframing did not change. No fact about wage rates, subsidy levels, or factory conditions moved at all. What changed was the criteria against which alternatives would be evaluated. And therefore which alternatives the committee went on to generate. Meridian's committee spent two of its five total meetings on framing alone. Researchers like Mintzberg would consider that ratio appropriate for a consequential strategic decision. In practice, this move takes weeks rather than hours.
Alternatives
Four Sourcing Architectures
The committee identified four alternatives, each a substantively different sourcing architecture. Alternative A, maintain the current mix. Accept rising costs, but minimise transition risk. Alternative B, shift thirty percentage points of production from Vietnam back to India. That takes advantage of the incentive scheme and reduces reputational exposure. It also accepts a six to eight per cent rise in unit costs over three years. Alternative C, shift production from Vietnam to Indonesia and Cambodia. That preserves the offshore cost structure. But it multiplies the number of supplier countries the company has to monitor. And Alternative D, a hybrid. Fifteen points to India, and fifteen to Indonesia. Diversifying risk without committing fully to either strategy. Four genuinely distinct options is the discipline step three demands, and that most committees skip.
The Comparison
The Same Four, Scored
Set the four side by side across five dimensions. On unit cost, the status quo rises about five per cent over three years. Reshoring rises six to eight. Diversifying offshore rises only one to three. And the hybrid rises about four. On regulatory risk, reshoring is low, diversifying offshore is high, the other two moderate. On reputational risk, the status quo is rising, and reshoring is low. Transition cost is where the status quo looks best. It costs nothing. Reshoring costs eighty-five crore rupees. Diversifying, sixty-five. The hybrid, ninety-five. And on resilience to shock, only the hybrid rates high. Now read the cheapest column, and then the most resilient column. They are not the same column. That gap is the entire decision.
The Numbers
What the Quantitative Toolkit Returned
The committee commissioned a quantitative analysis from its operations-research team. A decision tree was constructed for each alternative, across three states of the world. A benign scenario. Steady wage growth, and no major disruption. A moderate scenario, with a fifteen per cent probability of a significant event. A regulatory or reputational event in one supplier country, over five years. And a severe scenario, with a five per cent probability of a major industry-wide event. The team calculated expected net present values for each alternative across all three. It ran a Monte Carlo simulation on the wage-inflation and disruption-probability inputs. And it produced a tornado diagram, identifying the inputs the recommendation was most sensitive to. The headline finding did not choose an answer. It sharpened the question. Alternative D dominated in the moderate and severe scenarios. But it trailed Alternative C in the benign scenario. So the committee was asked, in effect, one question. Was the probability of the benign scenario high enough to justify the additional risk?
The Lenses
What the Numbers Could Not Weigh
The committee then applied a stakeholder analysis and the four ethical lenses. Shareholders. Indian employees. Workers in the existing Vietnam and Bangladesh supplier factories. The communities around those factories. Future workers in any new sourcing country. Indian regulators. And end customers. A consequentialist analysis looked at the welfare of the largest number. Including Indian workers under the incentive scheme, and existing supplier workers. It favoured Alternative B, or D. A deontological analysis raised concerns about Alternative C. Expanding monitoring across more jurisdictions weakened the company's ability to ensure dignified conditions. A virtue-ethics reading asked which choice members could defend to their families and former colleagues. The answer was overwhelmingly B or D again. And the justice-based analysis surfaced something the other three had missed entirely. The existing Vietnam supplier workers had no representation on the committee. Despite being among the most affected parties of all. So the committee added a stakeholder-engagement step to its implementation plan.
The Choice
Modified D, With a Condition Attached
After three months of deliberation, the committee recommended a modified Alternative D. Eighteen percentage points of production shifted to India, over four years. And eleven points to Indonesia. With the remaining shift held in reserve, to be reviewed annually. That phased structure was a deliberate use of incremental logic. Small reversible steps, each generating feedback that would inform the next move. The CEO approved the recommendation, with one modification. The Vietnam-to-Indonesia shift would be conditional. Conditional on Indonesia-based factory audits achieving an independent ethical certification. Within twelve months. That condition provided a deontological backstop the original recommendation lacked. The first phase of the transition began in October twenty twenty-five.
Integration
Every Framework Contributed Something
Step back and look at how many frameworks are actually present in this one decision. The seven steps gave the committee its framing and alternative-generation discipline. Decision analysis gave it the trees, the scenarios, and the Monte Carlo simulation. The Vroom-Yetton logic is visible in the choice of a consultative committee style. The administrative model explains the bounded search underneath the formal procedure. Incrementalism appears in the phased rollout, and the reserve held for annual review. Stakeholder analysis produced the list of affected parties. And the four ethical lenses weighed what the numbers could not. That is the point of the whole module in one picture. No single framework explains the decision. And every single framework adds something the others miss.
Honest Reading
How It Actually Unfolded
Now for the honest reading, which is less flattering than the summary. On close examination, the actual process conformed less to the seven-step framework. And more to a blend of the administrative and incremental models. Despite the committee's formal procedure, the key moments did not come from comprehensive analysis. The reframing in meeting two. The CEO's late addition of the certification requirement. Both emerged from limited information, time pressure, and political negotiation. And the Monte Carlo simulation, for all its sophistication, was not the decisive input. It was less influential than the lived experience of committee members who had visited supplier factories. So the decision was boundedly rational, in Simon's sense. And incrementally structured, in Lindblom's sense. And none the worse for either. The prescriptive frameworks gave the committee a shared language, and a shared discipline. The descriptive models explain how that discipline was actually exercised.
Consolidate
Reading a Decision Through Many Lenses
The Meridian case repays repeated reading, for a specific reason. No single framework in this module is sufficient to explain it, and every framework adds something. The prescriptive models gave the committee structure and accountability. The quantitative methods gave it rigour, where rigour was actually possible. The descriptive models explain the gap between the formal process and the practice. And the ethical frameworks kept considerations on the table that the tools could not capture. The case is not offered as a model answer. It is offered as a thinking exercise. Any complex organisational decision rewards examination through multiple lenses. And the discipline of switching among them is the most durable skill this module can teach. A graduate of this module should be able to read a decision like Meridian's. And notice each contribution. And, just as importantly, each absence. Then use that analysis to ask better questions of any decision they encounter. Including their own.
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About A Real-World Case
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